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Google: Could They Have Two Down Rev Years Ahead?

2008.12.06

Here’s a scary thought for Google (GOOG) shareholders: What if the company’s revenues were to shrink in 2009 - and then shrink again in 2010?

That’s the unpleasant scenario that Global Equities Research analyst Trip Chowdhry laid out in a research note today. He sees the company posting revenues of $15.71 billion this year, $15.23 billion next year and $14.57 billion in 2010, with profits of $19.44 a share this year, $19.24 next year and $17.98 for 2010. While his 2008 number is about in line with the Street consensus, he is way below most other forecasts for both 2009 and 2010. Chowdhry today set a price target on the stock of $270, which as it happens is not far from where the stock closed.

“Our research indicates that the challenging macro-economic conditions continue to worsen Google’s advertising driven consumer Internet business,” he writes. Chowdhry asserts that “contacts” say the number of keywords sold is down 2%-5%, and that bids on many keywords are down 20%. While Google is benefiting from the shift of ads from offline to online, he says that “the shift is not sufficient to overcome the downward macro-economic pressures.”

He also asserts that some users are “selectively turning off” the right side of search results, where paid ads appears. (How do you do that, I wonder?) He also contends that Microsoft is making some progress on the competitive front.

Meanwhile, he expects a new focus on cost reduction at Google; he foresees 10%-15% layoffs of full-time employees in 2009; and he says that Google has canceled a planned Oklahoma data center. (That would be on top of recent reductions in the number of outside contractors; Chowdhry himself in a previous note put the number of cuts at about 3,000.)

GOOG today fell $26.47, or 9%, to $266.49.

Forrás: http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2008/12/01/google-could-they-have-two-down-rev-years-ahead/

 

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